Meteorological Dept Releases Winter Start Dates, Predicts Late Warmer Season
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The Thai Meteorological Department has released statistics on winter season start dates over the past four years: 2025 (October 23), 2024 (November 3), 2023 (November 14), and 2022 (October 29). Currently, cool weather has not fully set in and rain remains scattered, so winter 2026 has not yet arrived.
For the 2026 winter forecast, the department predicts a later-than-average start, ending around mid-February 2027. Average minimum temperatures in upper Thailand are expected at 22-23°C, about 2°C above the normal 19.9°C, and warmer than last year's 19.6°C. The lowest temperatures of 10-12°C will occur mainly in the North and Northeast, while Bangkok and surrounding provinces will see 19-21°C and 18-20°C respectively. The coldest period will be late December 2026 to early February 2027, with cold to very cold conditions on mountaintops and frequent frost.
The South will experience cool spells in some areas, mainly upper parts, but heavy rain will continue, especially on the east coast in November and December, causing flash floods and runoff. Gulf of Thailand waves will reach 2-3 meters periodically, while Andaman Sea waves will reach 1-2 meters. Low-pressure troughs in November and December may develop into tropical storms moving toward the Gulf and South, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surges with 3-4 meter waves. El Niño is expected to strengthen late 2026 into early 2027, contributing to higher-than-normal temperatures and less cool weather.
For October 2026, the transition period brings variable weather with thundershowers in the North and Northeast during the first half, then decreasing rain with cool mornings. The South faces 60-80% area coverage of thundershowers with heavy to very heavy rain in places. Waves in both the Andaman Sea and Gulf will reach 2-3 meters. A high-pressure system from China will periodically cover upper Thailand while the southwest monsoon shifts to the northeast monsoon. Total rainfall nationwide is expected below normal except in the Northeast.
